The Answer Guy Online

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Friday, January 30, 2004

Split Decision

I'll probably have more on this later, but I was looking at this electoral map the other day and started playing around with it.

7 Ways To A Happy Election Night for Answer Guy:
1. [Blue States]* + West Virginia + Nevada
2. [Blue States] + West Virginia + Arkansas
3. [Blue States] + Nevada + Arkansas
4. [Blue States] + Arizona
5. [Blue States] + Ohio
6. [Blue States] + Missouri
7. [Blue States] + Florida

#5 or #7 would be the best, since one could lose one (or more) of the shakier "blue states" (Iowa, New Mexico, Minnesota, Oregon - though Nader made the last three considerably closer than they otherwise would have been in 2000) and still win. The Democratic nominee can't afford to lose the bigger Democratic leaners (Michigan and Pennsylvania) under any circumstances, although the same can be said about the GOP with respect to Florida and Ohio, and to a lesser extent Missouri and Arizona.

New Hampshire (Gore + Nader votes > Bush vote in 2000) could figure in here too if you lose a state elsewhere.

As I said, I'll probably have more susbtantive thoughts on why I picked those scenarios later.

*([Blue States] = ME + VT + MA + RI + CT + NY + NJ + PA + DE + MD + DC + MI + IL + WI + MN + IA + NM + WA + OR + CA + HI, states carried by/credited to Al Gore in 2000)


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